No Days Off: A Preview of the 2020–2021 NBA Season
What’s Next?
The 2020–2021 season is set to start on December 22nd. While the NBA hasn’t released an official schedule yet (the league is maintaining flexibility amids the pandemic by releasing the season schedule in halves, you can read about it here), some exciting preseason games are coming our way. The Warriors are back…sort of and the Nets will most likely be a top contender in the East with the return of KD and Kyrie. Here are some of the key narratives that I’m paying attention to ahead of this season.
The Slim Reaper Returns
After signing Kevin Durant last offseason amidst the star’s struggle with a ruptured Achilles, the Nets have waited patiently for everything to come together. Brooklyn was a playoff team this year and got by rather well with a flurry of quality role players, led by Spencer Dinwiddie, Caris Levert, and Joe Harris (whom they resigned this offseason). Kyrie only played 20 games but was stellar during that stretch. There’s much to be excited about, especially if James Harden actually ends up on their roster via trade, but I don’t think you can pencil in the Nets as a shoo-in for the Finals in a packed Eastern Conference. Team chemistry under new coach Steve Nash and KD’s play post-injury will be the biggest factors in how far this team will go. And let’s be honest, KD is one of the only players in the NBA who has rivaled and bested LeBron in the playoffs (no, I don’t like that he chose to go to Golden State over Boston in 2016 but he is that good) and his return adds even more parity to an ever-changing league landscape that has shifted towards dynamic duos in the past few years (Kawhi & PG-13, LeBron & AD, Dame & CJ, Jokic & Murray, Harden & Westbrook to name a few). It’s a matter of possibly having too many cooks in the kitchen (especially if Harden joins) but there is no doubt that the Nets are Finals contenders.
Eastern Conference Traffic Jam
On a related note, the Eastern Conference is absolutely stacked. The Bucks, Raptors, Celtics, Nets, Pacers, Heat, and 76ers all seem to be solid picks to make the playoffs again but the new-look hawks led by Trae Young could be pushing some of those squads for higher seeds. The Hornets could be somewhere in the mix as well after recently drafting LaMelo Ball and giving just a little too much money to Gordon Hayward. The Wizards add John Wall back onto a team with All-Star snub Bradley Beal, sharpshooting big man Davis Bertans, and Israeli League star Deni Avdija. The Hawks, Hornets, and Wizards (along with the perennial eight-seeded Magic) will probably be in the running to play in the league’s new play-in tournament while the rest of the top teams battle it out for seeding in a year where home court advantage and fan attendance will hopefully return at some point.
How do I see things shaking out? The Bucks and the Nets seem to be the only teams that could grab the top seed. With Giannis, Milwaukee has been unstoppable in the regular season for the past two years and I really see that changing this year. They’ll probably be a good defensive team again after exchanging Eric Bledsoe for Jrue Holiday but their mismash of offseason signings don’t seem to put them over the top either. Many were puzzled by Coach Mike Budenholzer’s minutes management in the bubble and we have yet to see the Bucks with Giannis adapt well to the defenses opponents have thrown at them in the playoffs so I think a coaching change isn’t that far off if this year also ends in disappointment. At the end of the day, Giannis as a lone star might just not be enough even with how good he’s gotten which might be why he ends up on another team next year.
The 76ers look like they could be a top 3 team with their offseason moves. A healthy Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid gets them to the playoffs but I like what they’ve done around those two. Tobias Harris (I forgot about him for a while), Shake Milton, Danny Green, Seth Curry, draft pick Tyrese Maxey, and bubble Youtuber Matisse Thybulle form a very solid supporting cast but we’ll have to see how this team plays under new head coach Doc Rivers.
The boys in Beantown will be relying on Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to make the leap after losing the aforementioned Hayward in free agency. The Tristan Thompson pickup was good given that Giannis will be in the East for at least another year but I’m not really sure if the Celtics got better this offseason. The clock is ticking (kind of) for them after having made the East Finals 3 out of the past 4 years. In past years, I could let them off the hook because they had to face LeBron every year but with him in the West, I really do believe this past season was the Celtic’s opportunity to finally make it to the Finals. Unfortunately, Miami played spoiler to that dream and the Celtics find themselves in a weird spot now with questions about what will get them over the hump.
The Raptors are intriguing like previous years. They surprised us all last year by staying very good without Kawhi and making it as far in the playoffs as Kawhi’s Clippers. They resigned Fred Van Vleet and picked up Aron Baynes but lost Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol this offseason so we’ll see how things shake out. I really think Baynes is underrated after seeing him play for the Celtics and improve from beyond the arc with the Suns. If Pascal Siakam can evolve into a clear-cut #1 option, I could see them competing for a top 3 seed as well.
The Pacers will be bringing back the same team under new coach Nate Bjorkgren after getting swept by the Heat in last season’s playoffs. Indiana has depth but that’s about it. We’ll see how a new regime works for this team that features a solid core of Victor Oladipo, Malcolm Brogdon, T.J. Warren, Myles Turner, and Domantas Sabonis. While I could see them making the playoffs again at a lower seed, I don’t see them going much further than where they finished this year.
And of course, we have the reigning East champs in the Miami Heat. This is a really good team period and Erik Spoelstra is probably the best coach in the league (and that’s not easy to say with Nick Nurse and Brad Stevens also in the East). The Heat have a young core that will keep them competitive for years to come but losing Derrick Jones Jr. to the Mavs and Jae Crowder to the Suns weaken their biggest asset in last year’s playoffs, their depth. Butler could have a great season but he’s probably at his peak right now which means the Heat might be fighting in the postseason as the five-seed again. That’s probably fine with them after seeing what they did to the Bucks and Celtics.
Western Conference Shenanigans
I mentioned the dynamic duos that seem to have taken the reigns from the “Big 3” teams of years past. That kind of roster construction is perhaps most prevalent in the West. The Suns now have their own duo in Devin Booker and Chris Paul while the Blazers have had a quality offseason putting good pieces around Dame Lilliard and CJ McCollum (who are 30 and 29 respectively…can you believe Dame is 30?!). The all-European duo in Dallas, when healthy, should lead the Mavs back to the playoffs. Given that you can go from being the 2 to the 7 seed in the West after a bad weekend of games, I really don’t know where the Mavs will ultimately land. They ultimately finished just 1 win behind the Jazz, Rockets, and Thunder last year and thus had to play the Clippers which was a bad matchup for them.
The Jazz and the Nuggets remain perennial playoff teams but to me, they’re both stuck in the middle of the pack and their upside depends on how much better their young stars can become. Utah loses out on-paper to teams with great duos because their second star is Rudy Gobert but it’s important to point out that they didn’t have Bojan Bogdanovic at their disposal in the playoffs. The Thunder could still make the playoffs even after losing Chris Paul and Danilo Gallinari (I mean, at some point Sam Presti’s going to use one of these picks right?) but aren’t Finals material. I’m not really sure what they plan on doing with their hoard of draft picks but next they’re a team to watch heading into next offseason when a deeper and better free agency class hits the market.
Even if James Harden does stay in Houston with Russell Westbrook, there’s only so much that can come from the kind of basketball the Rockets have committed themselves to during Harden’s tenure with the team. And by “so much”, I’m not saying they won’t make the playoffs. Heck, the Rockets should have made the Finals in 2018 but an injured Chris Paul and 27 bricked threes in a row got them in the end against the Warriors. Any team with Harden and Westbrook are playoff-bound but if Houston wants to go any further, I think a more traditional approach (i.e. not small ball) with Harden developing more as an off-the-ball player could get them there. They have made moves towards that with their signing of Christian Wood but if Harden is disgruntled heading into the season, all bets are off.
The Lakers had a weird offseason to say the least. Most people have concluded that they got better with their signings of Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell, Wes Matthews, and Marc Gasol. Others aren’t as high on these additions and I’m kind of in the middle. All four are great players but the Lakers won the title with their defense (and star power of course) last year and the Schroder and Harrell signings don’t fall in line with that identity. Losing Dwight Howard and Javale McGee means they don’t have an athletic big to put on guys like Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Giannis. Additionally, LeBron and AD will be the only returning players from last year’s most frequently used starting lineup which featured solid defenders in Danny Green, Avery Bradley, and McGee. For all the trashing of Montrezl Harrell that happened in the playoffs, I could definitely see Frank Vogel utilizing Harrell’s abilities better such that his defensive weaknesses aren’t as exposed. All in all, it’s quite possible that the Lakers are shape-shifting to be more offensively-oriented which isn’t a bad thing but the team seems to make less sense on paper with their most recent signings. They still have the best duo in the NBA and that’s ultimately what still makes them title favorites in my book.
I think the Clippers got better this offseason. Losing Harrell isn’t the biggest issue (and given the complaints of Clippers fans, he probably didn’t feel wanted there) and Kawhi and Paul George will get you to the playoffs. Adding Serge Ibaka will help them on the court and in the locker room and I think Luke Kennard is better than Landry Shamet. Getting Nicolas Batum via Charlotte’s move for Gordon Hayward could bear more fruit than anyone expects. The dynamic duo argument applies to the Clippers as well. Can their stars shine in the biggest moments? Will Kawhi continue load managing and if so, will the team gel?
To draw from what we saw from the Lakers postseason run, the biggest thing the Clippers need is team chemistry which their rivals got through LeBron’s leadership and through committing themselves to one another off the court. When you looked at the final four teams in the bubble, you also saw teams that loved to play together. Teams became families that fought for one another and the Clippers could realize their full potential simply by taking the time to know one another better. Ok, that’s pretty cheesy and as I mentioned earlier, we could be looking at things from a whole other angle if they had won any one of their last three games against the Nuggets.
That brings us to the Warriors. Klay Thompson getting injured again was probably the worst thing that could happen to the NBA this season but alas, the Warriors have pressed on by drafting James Wiseman, signing Kelly Oubre, and picking up Brad Wanamaker. They still have Andrew Wiggins, Eric Paschall, and Draymond Green but it looks like their best days are behind them. On the other hand, I will say that people are heavily underrating what Steph can do even with an aging Draymond and a team of role players. He’s proven himself and I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt even though he is 32 and played only 5 games last year before a hand injury sidelined him for the rest of the year. I could see the Warriors getting a 4 or 5 pick and possibly riding Steph’s hot hand to the conference finals.
The rest of the teams that found themselves competing for the last few seeds in the West were the Grizz, Pelicans, Suns, Kings, and Spurs. The Pelicans and Suns stand to be the teams that improve the most this year. A newly re-signed Brandon Ingram and a full year of Zion Williamson will make things fun in New Orleans and I could see them getting the seventh seed if they prove their mettle against the conference’s better teams. The Suns are just as exciting but like New Orleans, they will have to prove that they can hang with the league’s best after losing Kelly Oubre, Aron Baynes, Ricky Rubio, and Dario Saric this offseason. Despite those losses, Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Mikal Bridges form a great core that will be looking to build off the Sun’s undefeated run in the bubble seeding games.
The Grizzlies were handicapped in their bid for the eighth seed without Jaren Jackson Jr. but their young core will hopefully be back and better than ever. Ja Morant stands to make another jump after winning the ROTY award last year but Memphis hasn’t done anything this offseason to make me think they will squeeze into the playoffs given the other teams that they’ll be competing with. Both the Kings and Spurs don’t have enough pieces to compete seriously for top 6 playoff seeds but they could make things interesting. The Kings let Bogdan Bogdanovic sign with the Hawks and will be running it back with De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, and Marvin Bagley leading the way. Side note, I did not know Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes are the same age. Barnes is like Derrick Favors, you’d think he’s a 15 year veteran or something.
That leaves the Minnesota Timberwolves. With Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell returning, the Wolves should be competitive but what they lack is consistency. Per Basketball Reference, the player that started the most games for Minnesota was Robert Covington with 47 and he’s now with the Blazers. Additionally, their second leading scorer in Andrew Wiggins started the next most games with 42 but was traded to the Warriors last season. #1 draft pick Anthony Edwards is an uber-athletic prospect that slots in well with Russell and Towns but I’m going to stop short of putting the Wolves into playoff contention because their talented roster hasn’t spent much time together.
The Giannis Sweepstakes
Where will Giannis sign? If he doesn’t sign with the Bucks this year before December 21st (which he doesn’t have to), he’ll have a long list of suitors next offseason. While I’m sure most teams will have some interest, Milwaukee, Dallas, Miami, Toronto, and Golden State have all been rumored to be potential destinations for the Greek Freak. I personally would want him to stay in Milwaukee but Giannis joining Luka in Dallas or Steph in Golden State would be beyond scary. As I mentioned earlier, maybe all the Bucks need is for Giannis to add more weapons to his own arsenal but pairing him with a legitimate superstar at the guard position (like Luka or Steph) would cause so many problems for opposing defenses. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mark Cuban’s love for international players brings Giannis to Dallas either.
The Pandemic
Lastly, the pandemic. The NBA is scheduled to play a 72-game regular season that will finish before the Olympics, which were postponed until next summer. Given that the pandemic has only gotten worse in the United States since the league’s hiatus from March to June, things could go down the drain rather quickly if teams aren’t careful. The NBA recently released a 134 page manual outlining guidelines that teams must abide by as the pandemic rages on. While the league’s bubble experiment went extremely well, there are of course still concerns as all 32 teams resume activities. We’ll just have to wait and see how things play out as the league and world in general wait for a vaccine to be fully developed and distributed.
Concluding Thoughts
There’s much to look forward to with the season starting soon but what the other major sports leagues have run into with COVID-19 (especially in the NFL) doesn’t bode well for the NBA’s hopes to play a full season of basketball. And with the league removing most social justice messaging from its televised product, we’ll also see how players, teams, and the league as a whole continue to use the sport as a platform for making real change off the court.
